Investigating Effect of Temperature Fluctuations on Electricity Consumption in Babolsar

Document Type : Original Article


1 Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanity and Social Science, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran

2 Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

3 Faculty of Engineering and Basic Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Sari Branch, Sari, Iran


One of the most important factors in energy consumption is environmental conditions.This study aims to examine the relationship between temperature and electricity consumption in Babolsar city in Mazandaran province. The main issue in this study is to find different patterns of relationship between temperature and electricity consumption in this city. Daily electricity consumption and daily temperature, were collected from 1 Jan 2010 to 31 Dec 2019, from the Electricity Department and the Babolsar Synoptic Station. Threshold regression method was used to find the breakpoints of the regression line between temperature and power consumption. Findings revealed there were 3 distinct thresholds in the relationship between consumption and temperature. The first threshold was about


1.     Valor, E., Meneu, V. and Caselles, V. 2001. “Daily Air Temperature and Electricity Load in Spain.” Journal of Applied Meteorology, 40(8), pp.1413–1421.;2
2.     Ali, M., Iqbal, M. J. and Sharif, M. 2013. “Relationship between extreme temperature and electricity demand in Pakistan.” International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering, 4(1), pp.1-7.
3.     Al-Zayer, J. and Al-Ibrahim, A. A. 1996. “Modelling the impact of temperature on electricity consumption in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.” Journal of Forecasting, 15(2), pp.97–106.;2-L
4.     Mideksa, T. K. and Kallbekken, S. 2010. “The impact of climate change on the electricity market: A review.” Energy Policy, 38(7), pp.3579–3585.
5.     Beaulieu, C., Chen, J. and Sarmiento, J. L. 2012. “Change-point analysis as a tool to detect abrupt climate variations.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 370(1962), pp.1228–1249.
6.     Conevska, A. and Urpelainen, J. 2020. “Weathering electricity demand? Seasonal variation in electricity consumption among off-grid households in rural India.” Energy Research & Social Science, 65(2019).
7.     Jovanović, S., Savić, S., Bojić, M., Djordjević, Z. and Nikolić, D. 2015. “The impact of the mean daily air temperature change on electricity consumption.” Energy, 88(2019), pp.604–609.
8.     Bessec, M. and Fouquau, J. 2008. “The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: A threshold panel approach.” Energy Economics, 30(5), pp.2705–2721.
9.     Yee Yan, Y. 1998. “Climate and residential electricity consumption in Hong Kong.” Energy, 23(1), pp.17–20.
10.   Ayyash, S., Salman, M. and Al-hafi, N. 1985. “Modelling the impact of temperature on summer electricity consumption in Kuwait.” Energy, 10(8), pp.941–949.
11.   Salehizade, A. A., Rahmanian, M., Farajzadeh, M. and Ayoubi, A. 2015. “Analysis of Temperature Changes on Electricity Consumption in Fars Province.” Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 6(3), pp.610–617.
12.   Istiaque, A. and Khan, S. I. 2018. “Impact of Ambient Temperature on Electricity Demand of Dhaka City of Bangladesh.” Energy and Power Engineering, 10(07), pp.319–331.
13.   Li, M., Shi, J., Guo, J., Cao, J., Niu, J. and Xiong, M. 2015. “Climate Impacts on Extreme Energy Consumption of Different Types of Buildings.” PLOS ONE, 10(4).
14.   Liao, S., Chen, C. and Hsu, C. 2018. “The Non-Linear Relationship between Electricity Consumption and Temperature in Taiwan: An Application for STR (Smooth Transition Regression) Model.” Modern Economy, 09(04), pp.587–605.
15.   Wang, Y. and Bielicki, J. M. 2018. “Acclimation and the response of hourly electricity loads to meteorological variables.” Energy, 142, pp.473–485.
16.   Lee, C.-C. and Chiu, Y.-B. 2011. “Electricity demand elasticities and temperature: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression with instrumental variable approach.” Energy Economics, 33(5), pp.896–902.
17.   Li, J., Yang, L. and Long, H. 2018. “Climatic impacts on energy consumption: Intensive and extensive margins.” Energy Economics, 71, pp.332–343.
18.   Pilli-Sihvola, K., Aatola, P., Ollikainen, M. and Tuomenvirta, H. 2010. “Climate change and electricity consumption—Witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs?” Energy Policy, 38(5), pp.2409–2419.
19.   Sailor, D. 1997. “Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states.” Energy, 22(10), pp.987–998.
20.   Alberini, A., Prettico, G., Shen, C. and Torriti, J. 2019. “Hot weather and residential hourly electricity demand in Italy.” Energy, 177, pp.44–56.
21.   Chen, J. 1998. “Testing for a change point in linear regression models.” Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 27(10), pp.2481–2493.
22.   Hansen, B. E. 2000. “Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation.” Econometrica, 68(3), pp.575–603.
23.   Hansen, B. E. 1996. “Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis.” Econometrica, 64(2), pp.413-430.
24.   Xiao, T., Whitmore, G. A., He, X. and Lee, M.-L. T. 2015. “The R Package threg to implement threshold.” Journal of Statistical Software, 66(8). Retrieved from
25.   Truong, C., Oudre, L. and Vayatis, N. 2020. “Selective review of offline change point detection methods.” Signal Processing, 167(4).
26.   Nastos, P. T. and Zerefos, C. S. 2009. “Spatial and temporal variability of consecutive dry and wet days in Greece.” Atmospheric Research, 94(4), pp.616–628.
27.   Ahrens, C, D. 2009. Meteorology today an introduction to weather, climate, and the environment, Belmont.